International Forecasts and Simulations

Lectures:

1. Course introduction: What is forecasting? Some Basic Informations

2. Basics of Forecasting

3. Forecasting Procedures

4. Forecasting Methods

5. Are there things we cannot predict?

6. Types of Forecasts and Problems Associated with Them

7. Limitations of Forecasting – Assumption of Rationality

8. Other Limitations of Forecasting

9. Cognitive Biases – Part 1

10. Cognitive Biases – Part 2

11. Databases; Research Centers and Think-Tanks; Periodic Publications Facilitating Forecasting

12. Final exam

Classes:

1. Two Types of Analysts – "Foxes" and "Hedgehogs"

2. Analytical Framework – Method Discussion

3. Workshops on the Analytical Framework – Group Work

4. Presentations and Discussions

5. Alternative History

6. Workshops on Alternative History – Group Work

7. Presentations and Discussions

8. What Should a Forecaster Beware of?

Compulsory readings

1. Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, Crown Publishers, New York 2015.

Supplementary readings

1. Nazli Choucri, Forecasting in International Relations: Problems and Prospects, International Interactions, Vol. 1, pp. 63-86.

2. Charles F. Doran, Why Forecasts Fail: The Limits and Potential of Forecasting in International Relations and Economics, International Studies Review, Vol. 1, No. 2, pp. 11-41.

3. John R. Freeman, Brian L. Job, Scientific Forecasts in International Relations: Problems of Definition and Epistemology, International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 23, No. 1, pp. 113–143.

4. Stephan Frühling, Uncertainty, Forecasting and the Difficulty of Strategy, Comparative Strategy, Vol. 25, No. 1, pp. 19-31.

5. Gerald Schneider, Nils P. Gleditsch, Sabine Carey, Forecasting in International Relations One Quest, Three Approaches, Conflict Management and Peace Science, Vol. 28, No. 1, pp. 5-14.

6. Nassim N. Taleb, The Black Swan. The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Random House, New York 2008.

Passing conditions

Lectures: During the last lecture, 4 open-ended questions (duration: 1.5 hours). A very good (5) grade from the classes increases the exam grade by half a point.

Attendance at lectures is not mandatory.

Classes: Evaluation of work for each workshop counts for 40% + participation in other classes counts for 20%.

A maximum of 2 absences from classes is allowed. Each additional absence must be made up during consultations.