International Forecasts and Simulations

Lectures:

1. What is Forecasting?

2. Are There Things We Cannot Predict?

3. Types of Forecasts and Problems

4. Forecasting Methods

5. Databases

6. Exam

Classes:

1. Two Types of Analysts – "Foxes" and "Hedgehogs"

2. Forecasting Procedures

2. Analytical Framework – Method Discussion

3. Workshops on the Analytical Framework – Group Work

4. Presentations and Discussions

5. Alternate History

6. Workshops on Alternate History – Group Work

7. Presentations and Discussions

Compulsory readings

1. Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, Crown Publishers, New York 2015.

Supplementary readings

1. Nazli Choucri, Forecasting in International Relations: Problems and Prospects, International Interactions, Vol. 1, pp. 63-86.

2. Charles F. Doran, Why Forecasts Fail: The Limits and Potential of Forecasting in International Relations and Economics, International Studies Review, Vol. 1, No. 2, pp. 11-41.

3. John R. Freeman, Brian L. Job, Scientific Forecasts in International Relations: Problems of Definition and Epistemology, International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 23, No. 1, pp. 113–143.

4. Stephan Frühling, Uncertainty, Forecasting and the Difficulty of Strategy, Comparative Strategy, Vol. 25, No. 1, pp. 19-31.

5. Gerald Schneider, Nils P. Gleditsch, Sabine Carey, Forecasting in International Relations One Quest, Three Approaches, Conflict Management and Peace Science, Vol. 28, No. 1, pp. 5-14.

6. Nassim N. Taleb, The Black Swan. The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Random House, New York 2008.

Passing conditions

Lectures: Exam during the last lecture consisting of both close-ended and open-ended questions. Duration: 1 hour

Attendance at lectures is not mandatory.

Classes: Evaluation of work for each workshop counts for 50%

A maximum of 2 absences from classes is allowed.